David Leggett's automotive industry blog - from just-auto.com

London Motor Show

Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:03:00 GMT

We have got a motor show on in London this week and it even looks like the weather is finally looking up here.

Is the London event a biggie? It's sizeable but no, it's not up there with the big shows and is still to become properly established in the automakers' diaries. A number of them are absent and I guess the current economic backdrop doesn't augur particularly well for consumer visits.

But this is only the second London show since moving the event from Birmingham. The first one could be claimed by the organisers to have been a modest success.

It will certainly be interesting to see how busy the show is this time around and see how much media coverage is generated. The London event perhaps needs more time to become established and generate a clear position in terms of the benefits it can bring to consumers and exhibitors alike.

I can see why people question the point of a motor show in the UK. We don't have the large immediate base of local indigenous volume producers that Paris, Frankfurt, Tokyo and Detroit have. And Geneva is an established European 'neutral'.

But the UK is a major European market for vehicles and it's an international meeting place for OEMs wanting to supply Europe. There is plenty of automobile manufacture going on here and much more besides in terms of the supplier industry and high value engineering services.

Britain matters to the auto industry. And London isn't a bad place to spend some time is it? Just give it time.

Tomorrow is press day.

I've got an interview slot tomorrow with Bob Lutz among others. What's he doing here? Maybe it's an indication of just how important that Insignia launch is for GM. And maybe a few days in London in July didn't sound like an altogether unpalatable prospect either. If he sticks around later this week he can even catch Alice Cooper at the Arena which is hosting a number of rock concerts in the evenings to coincide with the motor show.

LONDON SHOW PREVIEW: 23 'global launches' promised

Continental and VW similarities

Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:38:00 GMT

The style of the takeover bid for Conti by family-owned German bearings maker Schaeffller is a little bit reminiscent of the manner in which Porsche has got control of Volkswagen; it's a gradual affair in which a smaller company gets control of a much bigger one by taking advantage of a low share price. And it looks likely to succeed.

Is it a good or bad thing? Continental does much more than tyres. It sounds like Schaeffler is motivated chiefly by the electronics stuff that Conti does post-Siemens VDO acquisition. Maybe going private could be to Conti's advantage? But might Schaeffler be tempted to sell off the tyres division? Or would new owners want to add shareholder value in the long run? If the prospective new owners are following Porsche-VW they will see that the architect of that, Ferdinand Piech, is taking a long view, strategically - while also doing a good job of delivering value to shareholders, on both sides.

Al Gore's latest

Fri, 18 Jul 2008 13:26:00 GMT

Al Gore certainly knows how to make the news. He's just said that the US needs to do away with all forms of carbon-emitting electricity production within ten years (er, easier said than done). Yep, that will grab some attention. At least he should spark some serious debate about energy policy in the US and that's no bad thing in a run-up to a presidential election.

Must admit, I did like this line: "We're borrowing money from China to buy oil from the Persian Gulf to burn it in ways that destroy the planet. Every bit of that has to change."

Just beware of politicians struggling to understand the energy problem or coming out with glib lines that they think will appeal to the populace. I actually would credit Gore with having done some work on the subject and to have developed his opinion as a result of that. He must know how difficult it would be to achieve what he is suggesting but wants to move the parameters of the debate in the US at this juncture.

I am not so sure our own prime minister has got a handle on the issues. He seems generally all over the place and to say he wants all new cars sold in Britain to be hybrids or electric vehicles by 2020 suggests a worryingly superficial analysis and/or inadequate briefing from his advisers. He should pick his words carefully, especially as he is about to clober hard-pressed motorists with higher taxes. Still, it's not quite as bad as 'eat up your scraps' I suppose. The man needs to get a grip on how he's coming across.

Gore Urges Change to Dodge an Energy Crisis

Making buildings look better

Thu, 17 Jul 2008 17:17:00 GMT

I recall that a few years ago there was an artist who covered landmark buildings with something like giant blankets. I think the Brandenberg Gate in Berlin was one. It made quite a visual impact.

Industrial buildings are often dull to look at. There is a brutal functional form thing going on and it's rare that an industrial building is pleasing on the eye.

I liked this draping thing going on at Ford in Germany. This could catch on, if the local authority planning regs allow it. I for one would favour anything that brightens up a grey industrial landscape.

GERMANY: Honey, I shrink-wrapped the Fiesta factory

Be careful in the office

Thu, 17 Jul 2008 16:30:00 GMT

It's become very fashionable to mock the 'Health and Safety' culture, but if H&S procedures and systems can reduce accidents, that's no bad thing. Accidents can blow up out of nowhere.

I was talking to Mark Bursa earlier - he's been at the Farnborough Air Show this week turning his hand to producing copy for an aero publication. As he typed away, he noticed the bloke sat next to him was trying to adjust his chair. The seat and the seat 'chassis' had, unknowingly, become separated due to the failure of some component. As the poor chap moved the seat closer to the table, his fingers entered the gap between the flat bed you sit on and some metal that forms part of the structure. He then brought his whole weight down on the end of a finger that was duly sliced off, guillotine style.

Blood was gushing everywhere and Mr Bursa - who spent the rest of the day with blood on his shirt - rescued the tip and gamely took charge of getting it frozen for a possible sewing back together later. Salutary tale though. Accidents often happen in the most seemingly innocuous of circumstances. This one was down to a slightly faulty chair, no more than that.

The gent concerned was apparently a trooper and back on the job a couple of days later, alas minus some index finger. It wasn't funny, of course, but some black humour of the 'give me four-and-a-half' variety was fairly inevitable. I got a finger caught in the hinge of a car door once (daft I know, I had hold of the B-pillar from inside for some reason) - I was really, really lucky not to be permanently injured; the door was not being closed too forcefully. Very painful. Digits and apertures are not to be taken for granted.

'Bright greys'

Thu, 17 Jul 2008 11:32:00 GMT

Bright greys? Just come across a term that stuck while leafing through AM magazine. What does the Daihatsu brand say to you? An unfashionable marque that majors in dull but competitively priced small cars with Japanese kei-class roots (the Copen being a stylish exception to the dullards rule)? That's maybe a little harsh when you consider the recently introduced Materia model - a funky looking car that is turning a few heads.

But who is Daihatsu aiming its products at? Answer: bright greys and I'm not talking ETs. 'Bright greys' are the term used by Daihatsu UK chief Paul Tunnicliffe when talking about Daihatsu's relatively aged customer base. They are active and aspirational, he says. They shop at Waitrose (an upscale 'middle class' UK supermarket chain) and John Lewis (an also upscale department store) and holiday in Tuscany and France (not a caravan in Clacton). How does he know where they holiday? They write to him to explain where the trusty Sirion or Charade has been, apparently.

Tunnicliffe seems to know his customer though and stresses that for a niche brand like Daihatsu it's important to target the marketing and not try to be all things to all people.

Anyway, seems to be working for Daihatsu in Britain along with some innovative incentives for mom and pop dealers.

But I like that term, 'bright greys'. If you work in a car company perhaps consider throwing it in to a marketing discussion sometime. 'Look guys, what are we doing to appeal to bright greys?' And there's also this thought. Who appeals to the 'dull greys' and which demographic group, the brights or the dulls are ultimately the most numerous and/or profitable to sell to? I guess the brights are growing as people who remember punk rock and still wear luminous socks enter their fifties. Oldies lead pretty active lifestyles these days that belie their clocked up years. Just ask Mick Jagger or eternal teenager Richard Branson.

Scary thought: am I, in fact, a bright grey myself? Certainly no spring chicken, but I would hope for bright rather than dull. I do like France for holidays - when I can afford it - and I do think the Daihatsu Materia is a car I like as a vehicular concept. I am mid-forties, so maybe that makes me a baby grey. I am certainly not short of grey hairs, that's for sure. I'll stop there.

Daihatsu's Materia - plenty of room in the back for the zimmer

Advanced diesels

Thu, 17 Jul 2008 10:21:00 GMT

Just been having a chat on the phone with Jesse Crosse - one of our contributors on the technical side - about some of the very latest developments with diesel engines. Some of the results of the latest R&D out there sound genuinely exciting in terms of how efficient and clean the technology can become. An article is in the pipeline.

Jesse is good at demystifying subjects that can be hard to get the old brain around. Here's an example:

ANALYSIS: Lotus champions a methanol economy

A 'harmonious' society

Thu, 17 Jul 2008 09:56:00 GMT

There's a thoughtful series running in the Daily Telegraph comparing America and China's societies - it's a bit of a travelogue, with some extremely pertinent observations made. The latest has a look at Chongqing - a rapidly developing city where a number of car plants are to be found, including a Ford JV.

Very nice work at the Telegraph, a British daily newspaper enjoying a kind of reinvention on the web that is slightly at odds with its rather staid print image. For those that don't know, it's traditionally been seen as the sort of right-wing newspaper retired army majors might read - conservative with a small 'c' (and a large one come to think of it). I hope the good material being produced online is getting a decent audience, presumably widening the DT's readership base beyond Colonel Blimp of Tunbridge Wells who thinks it's still 1955.

America and China: The Eagle and the Dragon

China's 'green Olympics'

Wed, 16 Jul 2008 16:21:00 GMT

China is so desperate to look good in the eyes of the world with the Beijing Olympics that it's almost painful to see the PR problems being dealt with in a rather ham-fisted manner (why does the world not understand us?). After the clumsy spectacle of the Chinese secret service goons accompanying the Olympic torch and being outwitted by determined Tibet protesters, there's now the small matter of air quality in Beijing.

Well, you wouldn't want to work your lungs hard through a smog of particulates would you?

I understand that some emergency measures are being contemplated to get some improvement before the Games commence, but there have now been enough media stories about poor air quality to engender unfavourable comparisons with the pea-soupers that gripped London in the 1950s before smoke-free zones came in.

Ironically though, if you go the Olympics, you may find yourself in a hybrid cab. Good stuff, bravo - every little helps. However, 'greenest ever' Olympics might be pushing it a bit if the athletes need lamps attached to their foreheads lest they get lost in the sooty fug.

Freddie & Fannie matter, yes they do

Mon, 14 Jul 2008 19:58:00 GMT

They may sound like a couple of old-time showbiz names, but Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are reminding us this week that the credit crunch is still very much with us, even if we are in danger of obsessing over the impact of dearer oil in our own sector.

As far as the auto industry is concerned, the way the credit crunch plays out is important because of its impact on vehicle markets and consumer demand. It's looking less likely that 2009 will see a sharp rebound in the US economy and the scale of ongoing problems in wholesale credit markets is brought home by Freddie and Fannie's woes.

Meanwhile, automakers are having to adjust to rapidly changing market conditions. Last week, Toyota became the latest to announce a major restructuring of US manufacturing operations. If even Toyota is having trouble shifting its Tundra pick-up that tells you how serious things have become.

With gasoline prices where they are, you don't need to be Einstein to conclude that the Toyota Prius hybrid should be a hot seller. Indeed, there is no doubt that people are clamouring for it in the US and dealers are screaming. But supply constraints - on the battery - mean that Prius sales this year in the US have actually been down on last year.

They'll be pulling out the stops at Toyota to get that supply situation resolved when the next generation Prius hits the market in 2009. Let's just hope no-one else at Toyota keels over with 'karoshi' (a Japanese word that I understand means sudden death through overwork; the fact that there is a specific word in Japanese for that phenomenon is slightly mind boggling - a bit like the multitude of words the Inuit have for snow, it's a kind of cultural pointer).

Looking further ahead, a firm in Britain believes it is onto something with the idea of local hydrogen refuelling stations (hydrogen gas produced via electrolysis on water) and the ability to retrofit ICE engines to take hydrogen. There's more work to do but it's quite a vision and presents a radical answer to the 'chicken and egg' fuelling infrastructure hurdle that alternative propulsion/fuel technologies are often faced with.

US: Toyota replacing trucks, SUVs, with Prius assembly

UK: UK technology company announces dawn of hydrogen age

That CNW study that said a Hummer is greener than a Prius

Mon, 14 Jul 2008 15:00:00 GMT

'Dust-to-dust' sounds like the way to go in assessing the environmental impact of various vehicles. And, intuitively, you'd think that a vehicle containing a heavy battery made up of an extracted metal ore would be a bit heavy in the production phase, even if cleaner in use.

And you may have heard about a study in the US that 'proved' a Hummer is actually environmentally cleaner in terms of the 'whole life' picture than a Prius. That study certainly got itself plenty of publicity with its eye-catching headline claim and people still trot it out.

But it's also a study that has been very heavily criticised - and not just by Toyota - on alleged flaws in the methodology. This link summarises the case for the prosecution.

Prius Versus HUMMER: Exploding the Myth

Dawn of the hydrogen age?

Thu, 10 Jul 2008 16:53:00 GMT

Hardly a day goes by without something of interest on the alternative - to the fossil fuelled ICE - powertrain front. BMW is apparently going to be putting electric motors inside some Mini models destined for California. And manufacturers are generally rushing electric car programs wherever possible.

The UK tech firm ITM pushing the idea of localised refuelling stations for hydrogen is an interesting one. That could remove the chicken and egg infrastructure provision problem, but a 25-mile range sounds a bit paltry for the home refuelling scenario.

Mind you, the technology could get a good start with the compressed hydrogen version that extends range 'four-fold'. Maybe we're not that far from a major fleet operator actually going for something like this and then momentum could conceivably get going. I understand ex-Ford of Britain's Roger Putnam is on the ITM board.

UK: UK technology company announces dawn of hydrogen age

WTF is that plate about?

Wed, 09 Jul 2008 18:35:00 GMT

Look, I haven't really ever grown up and I freely admit I would probably have to let out an involuntary chortle were I to see a car registration plate with 'WTF' on it. It's the same with other naughty words and acronyms seen out of context and in the wrong places. It's in my DNA.

Little ironies like this one crack me up; you can just imagine the conversations at the North Carolina State DMV office as the penny dropped when someone complained. Personally, I would derive no little amusement from having such a plate myself and would consider it a prized possession. It's only an acronym for goodness' sake. It's not like there's a big neon sign saying 'idiot' (not that people these days use quaint terms such as that).

And how much did it cost to notify some 10,000 drivers who 'might be offended and want a free replacement'? Bonkers. The officials in NC should have stuck to their guns and just said 'so what'. Or even, ahem, SFW?

Potentially Offensive License Plate To Be Replaced For Free

Solar power in Zaragoza

Wed, 09 Jul 2008 18:13:00 GMT

I wonder how much this investment to install solar panels on the roof of a GM factory in Spain has cost, but the end result sounds pretty impressive. If someone had asked me where the biggest roof solar panel facility in the world was, I wouldn't have thought it would be a car factory.

SPAIN: GM plant gets world's biggest rooftop solar power system

Petrol tank for GM's Volt

Wed, 09 Jul 2008 17:24:00 GMT

There's an interesting posting on Autoblog that raises a thorny question for engineers working on plug-ins that come with a supplementary gasoline engine to boost range by using the engine to generate electricity. How much fuel do you need to be carrying around? Much depends on how much range can come directly from the battery charge-up and also how efficient the power generation is when the car is running indirectly on fossil fuel.

Here's another thought though.

Just how will people actually use such a vehicle in the real world? Those doing mainly short daily journeys may rely on plug-in charging most of the time and get into a groove of charging the battery nightly and keeping the tank near empty to save weight. Great. But would others just get into the habit of filling up the tank and mainly use a car like the Volt on the supplementary ICE if they cover plenty of miles? And if so, I wonder what the mpg might look like bearing in mind the slightly convoluted transmission of power from source to wheels?

Autoblog

Bangle on BMW 'GINA' concept

Mon, 07 Jul 2008 15:20:00 GMT

Interesting video with BMW's Chris Bangle talking about a light and flexible fabric skin BMW has developed for a concept. As he rightly says, this concept poses questions.

On a more contemporary note, the new 7 looks like it has had a 'play safe' philosophy on external design this time around, the focus more on packing the car with some impressive sounding high-tech stuff. There won't be a 'Bangle butt' type controversy with this one.

GERMANY: BMW reveals new flagship

'Going green'

Thu, 03 Jul 2008 15:31:00 GMT

I have just been reading Dealer Update (a UK automotive retail sector publication produced by Trader Media/Auto Trader group). Through Auto Trader's UK website they carried out a survey on attitudes of retail buyers to green cars and issues. The survey results reinforce what the cynics say.

Most people, it seems, don't want to pay extra to be good to the environment. In choosing a car, price is by far the most important consideration. It was the most important single feature for a car for 86% of respondents and that's followed by performance and safety. Ranked low are things like low environmental impact in materials used or a 'clean' factory where the car came from.

But here's the thing. Small cars are booming in Britain; interest in electric cars and hybrids has never been higher. And it's got very little to do with people wanting to be green. It's got everything to do with rising taxes on motoring, a general squeeze on household incomes and skyrocketing pump prices. 'Being green' and good to the environment gets a little easier when it also saves you money. Conscience and wallet pulling harmoniously in the same direction. Grrreat.

And that's where the government here could face a slight problem with renewable energy for national power generation. To be effective, wind farms require heavy investment and are simply much more expensive as generators of energy - on current plans - than some of the dirtier alternatives we employ now. If we want to go down that renewables road it will cost more. That could be a very tough sell to a hard-pressed British public in a few years time (before the next general election energy policy is certain to be a major issue).

And if power generation stays unclean that will also mean your G-Wiz 2.0 is actually not all that good for the environment at all. The jokes may long since have stopped though if it has become a lot cheaper to run than a VW Polo on fossil fuels.

GERMANY: Consumers ready to buy hybrid and electric cars

Oil on the rise

Thu, 03 Jul 2008 09:32:00 GMT

I see oil has hit $145 a barrel. And the European Central Bank is potentially about to make things worse by raising interest rates. That, some say, will make the dollar even weaker and send even more of the speculators' money into oil, pushing the price up further. And, if that happens, 'cost-push' inflationary pressures are fuelled everywhere - including in Europe. Putting interest rates up in Europe to be 'tough' on inflation might not be the thing to do right now. Whether you believe that or not, the boss of OPEC has just said it. That in itself will be enough to have people convinced that the only way is up. $150 a barrel is now just over the horizon. Scary. If this is a bubble that will eventually burst, the bubble is now getting pretty big.

America and China: The Eagle and the Dragon Part two: Requiem for a dream

Fiat 500 picnic

Wed, 02 Jul 2008 19:03:00 GMT

Apologies if you can't open the below link - there might be cookies that mean I'm signed up but you're not (it's voodoo). The Fiat press release provided me with 30 secs of amusement though. Fiat is planning an international series of events for the birthday of the 500.

Here's a flavour: '....each "500 PICNIC" is aiming to satisfy specific national tastes by featuring local attractions: for example, in South Africa, where the initiative coincides with a commercial debut of the FIAT 500, symbolic sites like Table Mountain, the vineyards of Groot Constantia, and the zoological gardens of Johannesburg have been chosen.

'In Tokyo, instead, the event is slated to take place along the ocean in Kasai Rinkai Park, where an "exotic" Italian-style brunch will be offered while guests, together with an emerging Japanese artist, will be able to create works of art with recycled materials.

'The "500 PICNIC" events in Holland, Poland, and Greece have been organised near the sea as well. For example, in Rotterdam, the party will be on a boat, but the guests will be able to show off their cars anyway by lining them up along the quay; in Hel the guests will celebrate at the famous FIAT Playa of this Polish seaside resort; finally, in Athens, the event will take place at Akanthus, an exclusive hot spot overlooking the sea, and will conclude with spectacular fireworks over the water.

'In Switzerland the party will open with a parade of FIAT 500s that will leave from the various dealerships to reach the lake in Zurich, where enjoyable excursions in pedal-boats and the delivery of ten FIAT 500s are planned.'

And in UK?

'London, instead, will host the event at the prestigious [eh?] Alexandra Park, where guests will spend a day of relaxation and good food, livened up with street games, sports, and music.'

Yep, it's a simple piss-up.

Music, art, and togetherness: celebrate the "500 PICNIC" on July 5

Spanish data

Wed, 02 Jul 2008 14:56:00 GMT

Just found myself trying to find out a little more about the Spanish car market last month (it was down a whopping 31% on last year) and to my great suprise the just released data was very easy to find on the ANFAC website. Not only that, but there's some good detail, too.

A friend of mine who purchased a property there a couple of years ago has been crying into his San Miguel beers lately - house prices are plummeting and the construction sector is grinding to a halt, plenty of new developments standing empty. He reckons it will be a while before the Spanish economy bounces back because of its pumped up reliance on a speculative residential bubble that has now burst. And any feelgood factor associated with the recent football trophy for the Spanish nation will quickly fade, the whole economy seeing a slump that will take some getting out of.

Certainly a car market off 31% gives cause for concern. It will be interesting to see what difference the scrappage incentive being rushed in makes to the car market.