The frenzy of tariffs presently upending the plans of so very many car makers are just one among several major issues confronting Ford Motor Company. Demand for EVs is not what it had been forecast to be by now in North America, average MPG requirements are in flux in the US, mandates for electric vehicles have changed in Europe and may shift again, the Chinese market is shifting rapidly…and so on.
What is any CEO to do? Ford is sticking with Jim Farley while CFO John Lawler remains too, both navigating some especially choppy waters worldwide. This company has previously survived multiple tricky periods and crises, and there is little reason to believe it won’t thrive anew once the present turbulence dissipates. Or is replaced by some new challenge. It was ever thus in the global car industry.
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Nearly US$1bn profit in China
For all the upset and concerns over North American operations as well as the financial hits in Europe and what to do about its overcapacity there, it’s all too easy to forget that Ford remains a highly successful business. Take China as one example.
Despite now selling only around 10,000 passenger vehicle a month in the world’s largest market – about the same level as Hyundai, Volvo or Nio – John Lawler recently told analysts that pre-tax profit from Chinese operations was the equivalent of US$900 million in 2024.
The investments in Chinese plants continue, the emphasis more recently switching to exports. Examples include the locally built Mondeo/Taurus, Equator, Equator Sport and Bronco being shipped to multiple other markets. And more electrified vehicles are coming though Ford chooses not to compete directly with the welter of cheap EVs being brandished by BYD, Geely, Chery Auto, Leapmotor and others.
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By GlobalDataA return to India?
Ford’s presence in the world’s most populous nation is also a subject that world headquarters in Dearborn continues to examine closely. Its exit from Indian manufacturing operations was a painful experience but the company keeps an open mind about a possible return. Having sold the Sanand plant to Tata Motors in 2022, its other factory – Maraimalai near Chennai – was instead idled. Local media claimed Ford had entertained bids from VinFast, SAIC and Tata before deciding to retain the site.
The latest indications are that Maraimalai Nagar is to re-open not, as had been rumoured, to manufacture the Endeavour SUV, but as a powertrain complex. Specifically, engines and related components are supposedly to be made there for export. Negotiations towards a proposed agreement with the government of Tamil Nadu are reportedly ongoing. An official announcement is due later in 2025.
Ford’s next best seller now due in 2028
It may not be America’s most popular car brand, Toyota taking the number one slot for the first quarter, but the F-Series continues to be the national best selling model series. In 2024, the RAV4 beat the F-150 but including the Super Duty trucks, Ford was able to boast yet again that it makes the nation’s favourite model. Well, models.
The next F-150 is still three years away and already some details have leaked. Generation fifteen, the code for which is P736, has been delayed, now being set to enter production in mid-2028 from the originally planned late 2027. P702, pictured above, dates to 2021 and was facelifted last year.
A later-than-scheduled arrival means the second generation F-150 Lightning (project code: T3) will now arrive before P736 (as will the next Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra). At one time, the plug-in pick-up was set to premiere in 2025 but many US consumers’ disinterest in EVs saw Ford change push back the launch date. This is also said to be due to a major ongoing effort of removing unnecessary costs from the programme.
Now expected in the second half of 2027, the F-150 EV will be manufactured at BlueOval City’s Tennessee Electric Vehicle Center. Depending on how popular it may or may not prove to be, Dearborn Truck and the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center could also be deployed to add capacity commencing in 2028 or 2029. As for the life cycle, that would be seven years, so a freshening is scheduled for model year 2031 with generation three pencilled in for the 2035 model year.
A third plant for Super Duty trucks
There will be some news for the Super Duty trucks in 2026 which is when Ford plans to launch an updated series, supposedly adding a hybrid option for the F-250 and F-350. Also, presuming the present situation with tariffs can be resolved, assembly of both at the Oakville plant in Ontario should still go ahead. The fresh investment was announced in July 2024 a few months after the Canadian factory built its final Ford Edge.
Oakville Assembly had been due for a refit to produce a pair of three-row electric SUVs but both models were cancelled. Instead, Ford has been busy retooling the site for 100,000 units per annum of Super Duty production. This will be in addition to Ohio Assembly and Kentucky Truck, both of which are at capacity.
Essex Engine Complex, which makes the 5.0-litre Coyote V8, is also gaining investment via a new assembly line for the Super Duty’s 6.7-litre Power Stroke V8 diesel and 7.3-litre Godzilla gasoline V8. As Ford has not (yet) stated anything to the contrary, its US$3bn+ spend on truck and engine production in Canada is presumed to be going ahead. And as for when the next generation of the Super Duty series arrives, that will be for the 2029 model year.
Mustang sedan
There aren’t many cars left in the global line-up. The Mondeo/Taurus will be facelifted later in 2025 but there is no guarantee that Ford China will replace it. In North America, the company is instead betting on a four-door model around the same size, effectively a stretched and re-engineered Mustang. The ‘Mach-4’ will likely be revealed this year and new for the 2026 model year.
Expanding the Mustang line to a third model is clever thinking, particularly as the Mach-E has done well in some countries but not so well in others. It should be facelifted for MY26 with a successor in the pipeline for CY2028. Whether or not generation two will be manufactured in Mexico – the current one has been built at Cuautitlán Assembly since 2020 – is presently under discussion.
Ford of Europe shifted early into electric crossovers and SUVs, believing this would give it an advantage over competitors. Instead, many customers are still very keen on IC-powered models, the Puma being the best example. An electric version of this small crossover has just gone on sale. Both it and the petrol variants should be facelifted in 2026 and replaced in 2029.
Europe: a new IC-powered SUV in 2027
The European division’s two other main electric passenger vehicles are doing OK, not great. These, the VW-derived Explorer (CX740) and Capri (CX740L), are inherently first class designs but luke warm interest in EVs of this size is holding them back in many countries. Ford is due to facelift both in 2028 and launch successors in 2031. These should be linked to a smaller so-called ‘multi-energy’ model which will be made in Spain commencing in 2027.
The next vehicle for the Almussafes (Valencia) factory is now two years away from launch, and should be a Kuga successor with HEV, PHEV and possibly EV options. Platform-wise, it will use one of Ford’s own architectures, as should the next Explorer and Capri. This is of course presuming that the Niehl (Cologne) plant is not shuttered or at least loses a lot of capacity, which might well happen. Much depends on how CX740 and L fare during the next few years.
Next Explorer: 2027 or 2030?
Back in North America, the sixth generation of that region’s Explorer still has three (potentially more) years of build remaining. The U625 series model dates to 2019 and was facelifted in 2024. A refresh of the existing CD6 platform will be the basis of the next model but there are conflicting reports of when exactly generation seven will debut. This could be as far off as 2030 should the rumours of a second facelift for U625 (in 2027) prove true. Chicago Assembly will remain the only manufacturing location in North America.
Positioned above the Explorer, the largest SUV which Ford builds is also one of its newest models for the North American region. Expedition generation five, new for the 2025 model year, is the twin of the Lincoln Navigator, both also being available in extended form. They have been in production at Kentucky Truck (Louisville) since January. A hybrid option is likely to be added for the 2028 model year ahead of a facelift in CY2029 and successors in 2032.
Despite all the uncertainty presently bedeviling Ford and its competitors, the so-called ‘Affordable Electric Vehicle Platform’ is said to be on-track for launch in 2027. Mainly for models manufactured in North America, the architecture will be the basis for a medium-sized pick-up. Ford should provide an update on this project and associated next generation vehicles within the coming months.
