Our figures indicate that diesel share of new car sales in Western Europe in September fell to 11.9%, with August confirmed at 13.8%. The MoM difference appears significant, and the trend remains negative, but the September figure is influenced by the large UK total market, and the lower-than-regional-average share that diesel occupies within it. This effect typically drags down the European result in September, though in 2023 it was offset by distortions in the German market caused by withdrawal of a key BEV incentive that increased the non-BEV share, including diesel. When looking at the individual country diesel shares, it can be seen that the MoM diesel share decline at a market level was not unusually steep in September, thought the trend remains broadly negative.

Source: GlobalData

To September the cumulative diesel share stood at 14.3%, which is 0.3 pp down on the August position. Diesel sales in September were 121k, a 30k YoY fall with YTD data indicating that diesel sales (at 1.25 million units to September) were 160k fewer than seen in the same period of 2023. Volume-wise, Germany saw the biggest monthly decline in sales with September seeing 12k fewer units sold than a year earlier, but as mentioned, this is an unusual decline and may be a distortion caused by incentive changes in 2023.

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Hybrid share of diesel (mainly 48V MHEV) remains stable – figures below are for German diesel sales.

Source: GlobalData
Source: GlobalData

This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.

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