Sales Summary
According to preliminary estimates, Light Vehicle (LV) sales grew by 11.2% year-on-year (YoY) in March, to 1.61 mn units. While March 2025 had one fewer selling day than the same month a year earlier, there was a clear pull-forward in sales as consumers sought to make purchases before tariffs were applied. On a selling day-adjusted basis, sales increased by 15.5% YoY in March, with the daily selling rate was measured at 62.0k units/day, up from 51.3k units/day in February. The annualized selling rate was estimated at 17.8 mn units/year in March, up from 16.4 mn units/year in February.
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See also: Trump raises trade war stakes with blanket 25% tariff on vehicle imports
OEM Analysis
GM once again led the market, with total sales of 281k units, and a market share of 17.4%. Share was in line with recent months, but GM’s volumes were its highest since August 2019. It was not uncommon for OEMs and individual brands to see sales records, either for the month of March, or in some cases, all-time records for any month of the year. Toyota Group was second on 231k units, and a market share of 14.3%, while Ford Group was third on 193k units and a 12.0% share. At a brand level, Toyota came out on top with 196k units sold in March, ahead of Ford on 183k units. Chevrolet was only around 1k units behind Ford in third.
Model Analysis
In a change from the typical pattern of recent months, the Honda CR-V was the bestselling Light Vehicle in March, on 45.6k units, some 3.5k ahead of the Ford F-150. This was the first time the CR-V had topped the rankings since May 2021. The Toyota RAV4 – which has tended to occupy the number one ranking for much of the past year – was only third, on 41.5k units. This was the first time since August 2024 that the RAV4 has not been either first or second in the rankings. The Chevrolet Equinox was fourth, with the Chevrolet Silverado completing the top five.
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By GlobalDataSegment Analysis
The Compact Non-Premium SUV segment continued its strong recent performances, achieving a 22.2% market share in March. The Midsize Non-Premium SUV segment reached a 15.1% share, as sales of the new Toyota 4Runner started to ramp up. Large Pickup saw a modest market share of 12.5%, though this is typically a quieter time of year for the segment, and its share rose by 0.7 pp YoY.
David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts, GlobalData, said: “Until March, it appeared that consumers were largely content to wait on the sidelines and assess what might develop regarding tariffs, rather than rush to make a purchase. That changed last month, especially after the March 26th announcement that 25% tariffs would be placed on all imported Light Vehicles, plus many key automotive parts. While sales appeared to be robust throughout March, there was a notable surge in the final weekend after the picture regarding tariffs became clearer. In addition, the news coincided with the final weekend of the month and the end of the first quarter, which typically sees an uptick in sales in any case.
“The concerns that many within the automotive industry have expressed for months now appears to have crossed over into the public consciousness. Although OEMs that import large numbers of finished vehicles are most exposed, all automakers will face higher costs due to tariffs on imported parts. Changes in customs procedures could also lead to delays and snarls at borders, and inventory could once again come under pressure if production slows or ceases. As the latest auto-specific tariff announcements seem to be devoid of references to actions that other countries can take to avoid the import duties, this appears to be a more permanent shift in policy to alter trading relationships over the long-term. OEMs are likely to react by shifting more production to the US, but this will be a long and complex set of changes to enact”.
Forecast Updates
GlobalData will be updating their forecast for 2025 and beyond in the coming days. While details around reciprocal tariffs could yet alter the outlook, at this point it seems likely that the impact on annual volumes could be in the range of 1 to 1.5 mn units below our base case forecast of 16.1 mn units. The reduction in sales for 2026 could be even more significant, given that the full year could be affected by the new trading environment. Over time, greater localization of production and some adjustment in expectations around pricing from consumers could see sales gradually improve. However, volumes could be permanently lower than the base case forecast unless there is a reversal of the tariff policies.
This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.
