November was almost a repeat of October in terms of the share that diesel achieved, and not too far off the result seen a year earlier (13.1% versus 14.6%) continuing the theme of a slow decline in diesel share. We wondered whether the UK diesel share might be adversely impacted in November as OEMs pushed BEVs into the market in order to meet mandated ZEV targets for 2024.
However, the UK diesel market is already rather small, and so no clear impact was observed. However, diesel could be more widely at threat in 2025 as not only is a more stringent ZEV mandate due to come into force in the UK, but the EU will require compliance with the next downward step in its new-car CO2 reduction program.
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Diesel sales in the region in November were about 20k lower than a year earlier, while to date, the total of 1.5 million units is almost 200k down on 2023. Germany continues to be the saviour of the region’s diesel industry with cumulative 2024 sales only 23k down on 2023, offsetting France and Italy’s steeper falls. Germany’s BEV market is expected to re-awaken in 2025 as conditions improve and so we aren’t likely to see a repeat of the strength in the ICE sector that has been a feature of 2024. Nevertheless, diesel will continue to be a significant part of premium powertrain mix in the country for some years to come.
OEM-wise, Stellantis has seen the biggest shift from diesel in 2024, while others have seen little change:
This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.
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