GM chose the Detroit motor show this week to exhibit its latest hydrogen-fuelled prototype, a descendant of the Hy-wire – the company’s first model unveiled in 2002.
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The company has invested heavily in researching hydrogen cell technology and in August 2004 gave its backing to a European scheme to test fuel cell infrastructure and support systems. Such is the conviction in the benefits of hydrogen that GM’s senior management believes the entire future of the global automotive industry will be based around the fuel. However there is little doubt that such a bold approach represents something of a gamble for the company.
The US automaker accepts that the shift to hydrogen-powered cars will be bridged by hybrid vehicles that have an electric motor along with a combustion engine. Essentially, hybrids, of which over 80,000 were sold in the US in 2004, are more closely related to conventional automobiles since they use internal combustion to provide much of their motive power. The benefit with an entirely hydrogen-powered car is that the only by-product is water vapour, formed when the hydrogen protons are combined with oxygen.
GM’s unveiling of its new Sequel prototype supposedly marks the launch of a practical hydrogen-powered car. The Sequel can apparently travel 300 miles (approximately 500 kilometres) without having to be refuelled, putting it on par with the average combustion engine car. It was also designed with crash-test regulations in mind, making it a more realistic road car than previous hydrogen prototypes.
However, before hydrogen-powered vehicles are mass-produced, the industry has to overcome numerous hurdles, making the widespread adoption of the technology unlikely in the short term. Billions of dollars would have to be invested in installing petrol stations with hydrogen dispensing facilities. Furthermore, once this is in place, the hydrogen would have to be, at the very least, comparable with petrol in terms of price.
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By GlobalDataThis may cast some doubt over GM’s hopes of having a hydrogen-powered car in mass production by 2010. GM’s competitors believe that it is going to be decades before such cars will be financially viable. Indeed, some critics argue that GM is perpetuating the hegemony of the internal combustion engine by lobbying against environmental regulations – for example, the company has participated in legal proceedings against California’s anti-pollution laws.
Even if GM does follow through its strategy to have a mass-produced hydrogen-powered vehicle on the market by 2010, the company will face strong competition from other players such as Lexus. To date, the Toyota brand has sold over 300,000 hybrid vehicles globally, which amounts to more than all of the other manufacturers combined. In essence, Lexus’ hybrid vehicles would be in competition with GM’s hydrogen-fuelled counterpart. With Lexus currently planning to launch the Lexus GS 450h in March, a stylish sports car with hybrid power, it seems clear that GM has its work cut out if its hydrogen vision is to become a reality.
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR COMMENTWIRE (c) 2005 Datamonitor. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without prior written consent. Datamonitor shall not be liable for errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.
