French light vehicle registrations have continued to make gains during the early months of 2015, IHS Automotive principal analyst Ian Fletcher said in a research note.
According to data published by local trade association, the French Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (Comité des Constructeurs Français d’Automobiles: CCFA), the number of vehicles registered in February grew by 2.9% y/y to 176,468 units. Passenger car registrations were the main driver of this improvement, reaching 147,130 units, a gain of 4.1% y/y. There was a difference in the number of working days this month. This saw its year to date (YTD) growth rise by 5.1% y/y to 280,300 units.
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Domestic OEMs were a small contributor to the improvement this month. PSA Peugeot-Citroën made a gain of 1.8% y/y to 43,477 units. This was underpinned by the strong performance of the Peugeot brand, which improved by 5.3% y/y to 25,485 units. However, this was offset by a retreat of its Citroën brand by 2.8% y/y to 15,692 units while its newly spun-off DS premium brand declined 3.2 y/y to 2,300 units.
Renault Group’s performance also increased by 1.8% y/y, recording 36,366 units, as the Renault brand leapt 11.7% y/y to 29,764 units. Nevertheless, the group’s wider performance was hampered by its low-cost Dacia unit, which recorded a slump in registrations of 27.2% y/y to 6,602 units.
Gains were also recorded across the majority of key non-domestic automakers in February. This included Toyota (+3.7% y/y), Nissan (+7.1% y/y), Ford (+34.7% y/y), Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA; +8.8% y/y), and Hyundai Group brands, Hyundai and Kia (+10.6% y/y). Premium automakers also recorded strong gains, with BMW Group up 30.6% y/y to 5,512 units and Daimler improving by 21.2% y/y to 4,493 units.
Amongst the exceptions was the Volkswagen Group (VW), which recorded a dip of 0.9% y/y to 18,479 units; although the Volkswagen and Audi brands recorded small gains, double-digit percentage declines at SEAT and Skoda dragged down the group’s performance.
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By GlobalDataGeneral Motors (GM) also continued to be blighted by the withdrawal of the Chevrolet brand from the French market. Although demand for Opel reached 5,271 units this month, an increase of 4.2% y/y, Chevrolet saw its registrations slump from 1,081 units in February 2014 to just 12 units. This has caused overall GM registrations to drop 14.0% y/y to 5,283 units.
In the LCV category, registrations during February again retreated, dropping 2.9% y/y to 29,338 units. Matters were not helped by the situation for local automakers, where PSA recorded a 4.7% y/y decline to 10,049 units while Renault Group dipped by 3.8% y/y to 9,584 units. YTD registrations stand at 54,361 units, a retreat of 5.6% y/y.
IHS Automotive said: “The French passenger car market has once again seen growth continue in early 2015, possibly helped by a low base caused by the implementation of a slightly higher value added tax (VAT) introduced at the beginning of 2014, as well as further evolution of the bonus malus tax system. This has reduced the incentives for buying low emitting vehicles, while the burden for customers buying higher emission vehicles has increased substantially.
“Environmental factors look set to have a further influence on vehicle purchases in France in the future. The French government is keen to reduce the number of diesel vehicles on the roads and is implementing a range of measures that could reduce numbers. These include reducing the difference in cost between diesel and petrol by increasing the TIPCE duty on diesel by EUR0.02, which is expected to raise EUR807m during 2015. In addition, subsidies of up to EUR10,000 (US$11,191) will be offered from April to swap the worst emitting diesel passenger cars in the most polluted areas for electric powered cars, although other lower subsidies are also anticipated. Pressure will also be put on drivers in Paris with the roll out of regulations to restrict the entry of the worst emitting vehicles in to the city centre by 2020, which are linked to a ranking system for vehicle emissions. Incentives are also expected to be offered to those giving up such vehicles.
“From an economic perspective, IHS expects France to benefit from lower inflation and a weaker euro, which should boost activity during the first half of 2015. Nevertheless, growth is expected to be modest for the year. Private consumption, France’s traditional growth engine, will be hit by weak nominal wage growth, although low inflation should help to sustain households’ purchasing power. However, although we expect households to respond by increasing their spending, still-low consumer confidence levels suggest increasing purchasing power will also translate into higher savings.
“After barely surpassing the sales levels of 2013 – which was a low ebb for the market – during 2014, IHS Automotive expects improvements during 2015. We anticipate passenger car registrations increasing by almost 1.5% y/y to 1.82m units supported by a better economic cycle and favourable product momentum, particularly from the French brands. We also currently expect LCV demand to grow by around 3.8% y/y during 2015 to 386,500 units. This would still leave both these categories below the pre-crisis average, and although further improvements will come, it could be several more years before normality returns.”
