A forecast for September light vehicle sales in the US suggests the market is running flat, despite a year-on-year decline projected for the month.
JD Power said US total new vehicle sales for September 2024, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,164,900, a 1.8% decrease from September 2023 on a selling day adjusted basis, according to a joint forecast from JD Power and GlobalData.
September 2024 has 23 selling days, three fewer than September 2023 due to the timing of the Labor Day holiday. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to a decrease of 13.2% from 2023.
However, the seasonally adjusted annualised rate (SAAR) for total US light vehicle sales is expected to be 15.8 million units, flat from September 2023.
JD Power also said new vehicle total sales in Q3 2024 are projected to reach 3,882,600 units, a 0.2% increase from Q3 2023 with two less selling days.
Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at JD Power said: “September sales volumes will be lower than a year ago because of a calendar quirk that saw the Labor Day holiday weekend fall into the August sales month. This boosted August’s sales but will diminish September’s sales from a year ago. When August and September results are combined, retail sales increase 2.6% year over year.
“Retail inventory is projected to be 1.8 million units, a 6.2% increase from August and a 30.7% increase from September 2023. Rising inventories are leading to larger discounts from both manufacturers and retailers. However, the inventory situation continues to be inconsistent across brands and models, with some popular vehicles remaining in short supply.”
‘Summertime EV Blues’
Elizabeth Krear, vice president, electric vehicle practice at JD Power noted that interest in EVs from new vehicle shoppers reached a low point for the year in September. “Just 21.7% of new vehicle shoppers said they were ‘very likely’ to consider an EV for their next new-vehicle purchase, a 4.2-percentage-point drop from a year ago. Some might call it the ‘Summertime EV Blues,’ she said.
However, EV share of sales is holding due to attractive deals for consumers. “Even though fewer shoppers are considering EVs, the sales share for EVs peaked at 9.4% in August and has held through mid-September, which is a pretty healthy position,” she said.
“The contradiction of lower interest and higher sales will lead many to ask, ‘How can that be?’ The answer is simple: incredibly discounted transaction prices. Buyers are always looking for a deal, and what they’re paying now for an EV—thanks in part to federal incentives—is less than the comparable segment average price in both mass market and premium segments.”
